The Mariners' recent decline in bat speed has sparked concern among fans and analysts alike, but a closer look reveals a more nuanced story. While it's true that bat speed is down for half the Mariners' lineup, with some batters swinging 0.7 mph slower on average than last year, it's not as simple as blaming the slower swings for the team's disappointing start. The team's manager, Dan Wilson, dismisses the idea that the decline in bat speed is a significant concern, citing the early stage of the season and the multitude of factors that could be involved.
One key point to consider is that only three Mariners have bat speed drops greater than 1 mph, and these players are among the top hitters on the team by wRC+. This suggests that bat speed, while important, is not the sole determinant of a batter's performance. The article delves into the complexities of bat speed measurement, explaining that it's not a constant speed but rather a function of timing and circumstance. The 'point of contact' between the bat and the ball is crucial, as it depends on the pitch type, velocity, location, and the batter's ability to identify these variables.
The author also addresses the theory that Seattle's cold weather is the primary cause of the drop in bat speed. While it's true that bat speed is slower in colder temperatures, the author estimates the change in bat speed at about 0.2 mph per 10 degrees Fahrenheit, which is not a significant enough factor to be the sole explanation. The article also notes that T-Mobile Park, the Mariners' home field, is more neutral than expected in April, and the team's performance can vary depending on the time of year.
In conclusion, the Mariners' decline in bat speed is likely a symptom of early struggles rather than a cause. The author suggests that the team's timing is off, they were swinging at bad pitches, and they were falling behind in counts, which could all explain their bat speed slump. With the season still in its early stages, the team has ample time to adjust and improve, and the author remains optimistic about their chances of turning things around.
