Canberra is sitting on a ticking time bomb, and it’s only a matter of time before a Los Angeles-style fire threat becomes a devastating reality. But here’s where it gets controversial: are we doing enough to prevent history from repeating itself? A stark warning from retired Major General Peter Dunn, former chief of the ACT Emergency Services Agency (ESA), sheds light on the urgent need to rethink our approach to fire safety. His call to action comes alongside a chilling report from the Climate Council and Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, which paints a grim picture of Canberra’s future unless drastic measures are taken.
The report, When Cities Burn: Could the LA Fires Happen Here?, highlights a perfect storm of factors—global warming, erratic weather patterns, and sprawling urban development—that are setting the stage for another catastrophic bushfire. And this is the part most people miss: Canberra’s rapid growth since the 2003 disaster, which claimed four lives and destroyed nearly 500 homes, has left it more vulnerable than ever. Suburbs now back directly onto forests and grasslands, putting thousands of residents in harm’s way. The population in outer suburban areas has surged by 46% since 2001, with over 332,760 people now living on the urban fringe.
Here’s the bold truth: Canberra’s northern and western edges, where the 2003 firestorm originated, have seen unchecked greenfield development over the past two decades. New housing estates like Whitlam, on the western edge of the ACT, are prime examples of this risky expansion. But Major General Dunn isn’t calling for a halt to growth. Instead, he emphasizes the need for awareness, preparedness, and a reevaluation of how we manage the bush-urban interface.
One controversial point? Dunn argues that the ACT government failed to implement a key recommendation from the 2003 bushfire inquiries: making the ESA an independent agency directly accountable to a minister. Is bureaucracy getting in the way of our safety? Dunn believes so, suggesting that a streamlined ESA could provide clearer, more direct advice to ministers and serve as a single point of contact for the community. He also welcomes the new ESA facility in Molonglo but insists the ACT needs more Commonwealth funding to bolster firefighting capacity, including volunteer services.
But here’s the real question: Are we moving fast enough? Dunn warns that emergency services must expand rapidly, with a focus on swift response, advanced surveillance, and public awareness. Land management agencies, he adds, need adequate funding for controlled burns and maintaining the urban-bush interface. Drawing on Indigenous wisdom, he notes, “For First Nations people, the rule of thumb is clear: protect the camp by clearing around it. In this case, the camp is Canberra’s north and west.”
The report also stresses the need for community preparedness, urging homeowners to retrofit their properties to bushfire standards. Yet, it warns that even the most skilled firefighting crews may be powerless against increasingly unpredictable and intense fires, which can generate their own storms and cyclonic winds. Canberra’s 2003 fire tornado, the first in the southern hemisphere, is a stark reminder of this reality.
Despite relatively calm conditions since the 2019 Black Summer fires, the ACT remains prone to LA-like fire risks: drought, strong winds, vast bushland near homes, and steep slopes that fuel fire spread. The report calls for prioritizing emergency services and land management at the bush-grassfire interface, suggesting options like paid seasonal deployments, expanded volunteer roles, and repurposing forestry machinery to create biodiversity-rich fuel breaks.
Here’s the bottom line: Federal, state, and territory governments must invest heavily in disaster preparation, hazard reduction, community education, and evacuation planning. The cost of inaction is staggering. Insurance losses from the 2003 disaster topped $1.2 billion, and premiums in bushfire-prone areas have skyrocketed by up to 138% since 2020. The 2019-20 Black Summer fires alone cost the economy an estimated $10 billion.
So, here’s the thought-provoking question: Are we willing to pay the price of preparedness now, or risk facing an even greater cost later? The report leaves no room for doubt: another fire on this scale—or worse—is not a matter of if, but when. The time to act is now. What do you think? Is Canberra doing enough, or are we sleepwalking into disaster? Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments.
