For the first time since 2023, Bitcoin is experiencing a notable shift as its profit cycle turns negative, signaling a significant psychological change among investors.
In essence:
- The total net realized losses for Bitcoin have reached an astonishing 69,000 BTC, marking a change not witnessed since late 2023.
- This year's bullish trend contrasts sharply with the declining realized profits, echoing patterns seen before Bitcoin’s downturn in 2022.
- As reported by Decrypt, the forecast for 2026 is increasingly reliant on policy changes rather than just on-chain data.
Bitcoin investors are now facing a pivotal moment that hasn't occurred for over two years, as they move from securing profits to recognizing losses. The net realized profit and loss metric, which represents the overall gains or losses that investors secure when moving their coins on-chain, has dipped into negative figures. This development indicates that many holders are currently choosing to take losses.
According to analysts at CryptoQuant, "This is the first instance since October 2023 where holders have recorded net losses within a 30-day timeframe." Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, added in a tweet that short-term investors, often referred to as "Bitcoin tourists," are opting to sell their assets at a loss, a move that may indicate a turning point in the bullish market that began in late 2023. This shift provides a crucial health check for investors analyzing the strength of the current market.
Over this recent period, the cumulative net realized losses have totaled around 69,000 BTC, corresponding to approximately $6.18 billion, especially significant as Bitcoin's price has decreased nearly 1% to $89,700 according to CoinGecko. When we compare these figures to previous market peaks, the contrast is stark. For instance, in March 2024, there were 1.2 million BTC in realized profits, yet by October 2025, even as Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $124,774, this number had drastically fallen to 331,000 BTC.
The report from CryptoQuant also pointed out, "Net realized losses are showing similar levels and trends to those observed in March 2022, which was when the bear market was already taking shape." It emphasized that the decline in net realized profits reflects a weakening in Bitcoin's price momentum.
However, Sean Dawson, head of research at the on-chain options platform Derive, suggests that this decline does not necessarily foreshadow an imminent downturn. "I don’t believe there is a direct correlation between these two factors," Dawson remarked, suggesting that the decrease in net realized profits and losses may indicate reduced volatility due to the entry of more sophisticated players in the digital asset market.
Instead, Dawson posits that macroeconomic elements are primarily influencing Bitcoin's pricing, noting that the cryptocurrency is becoming more sensitive to shifts in policy. The recent drop below $90,000 can be attributed, in part, to the fallout from Japan's bond market crisis and the $1 billion liquidation surge following Trump's unexpected reversal on Greenland and related tariff strategies.
Dawson emphasizes, "We should focus more on Fed rate predictions, the looming U.S. debt crisis, and foreign policy implications." He highlighted the upcoming leadership transition at the Federal Reserve as a crucial, albeit optimistic, factor for Bitcoin, suggesting that markets could experience favorable conditions as the Trump administration aims for a robust economy.
Ultimately, whether this negative profit cycle triggers a prolonged downturn or merely serves as a temporary adjustment will depend on which perspective ultimately proves more accurate.
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